The UDIA NSW Greenfield Land Supply Pipeline Survey was launched at the Annual Winter Lunch on June 17. The report identified the anticipated schedule for future housing supply delivery and identifies the barriers which need to be resolved to meet demand for new homes in Greater Sydney, the Illawarra, Central Coast, and the Hunter.

Highlights from the report:

NSW Government’s Intergenerational Report identified that NSW needs to build approximately 42,000 new homes per annum, with over 90% needing to come from the Sydney Megaregion markets.  This translates into around 14,000 greenfield homes per annum, to meet the minimum demand identified.

To give an idea of the scale of this challenge, even at the peak of housing construction in 2016, NSW only delivered around 13,180 new greenfield homes and was generated by significant enabling infrastructure investment and coordinated land release.

Four out of five lots, a total of 64,000 lots, that developers are hoping to deliver between FY22 and FY29 require enabling infrastructure. Historically, much of this infrastructure has not been delivered in a timely way. If this experience is repeated, then the shortfall in housing supply will be even larger.

The majority of lots expected to be delivered in the next 8 years are constrained, with 76% of expected lots needing sewer infrastructure and 70% needing water services.

Even if all expected lots developers are expecting to be delivered up until FY29, including those currently requiring re-zoning or facing infrastructure constraints, supply will still fall short of demand by 3,200 lots per annum and 4,400 lots in FY22.

Without action, there will be an undersupply of 25,600 greenfield housing lots in the Greater Sydney Megaregion relative to demand by FY30.